I suspect if readers went back over my newsletters from the past six years, they would find recurring references to the budget as the big-ticket issue for the year, and questions about how the state was going to find the necessary funds to support education, human services, or roads and infrastructure. Each year, the fiscal rhetoric has a familiar ring, and I can well understand why citizens decide that all elected officials talk about is needing more money—more taxpayers money. The core issue for the state is the same that faces the average Virginia family. Cars, houses, clothes—most goods and products rise in price. Doctors, car mechanics and telephone services cost more. Unattended or overlooked maintenance or unplanned for or unmet future expenses create greater financial woes down the road. Virginia is facing all the usual fiscal responsibilities, plus some additional headaches.

With absolutely no changes to any state agency, department, program or personnel, it will cost more money to run the state next year than it did this year. There are myriad compulsory components that increase the budget, which include:
•  Federal mandates to fund all additional Medicaid recipients.
•  obligations to cover payments to a growing number of retirees. (in spite of serious decreases to the fund caused by a sharp decline in the economy).
•  preparing for the 35,000 new students expected to enroll in our public schools and colleges in the coming years.
•  addressing a minimum of $2 billion in transportation projects.

This year there are numerous and conflicting legislative proposals before both houses of the General Assembly. They contain varying levels of complexity making it difficult to determine the most equitable and forward thinking path. The first fork in the road requires either choosing to fix what everyone agrees is a state budget with a one billion dollar deficit by making further cuts to programs and agencies while also relying on natural economic growth, or to raise revenue, generally through taxes and fees to cover costs and deficits.

Those strongly committed to no new taxes have voiced confidence that the double tactic of relying on economic growth to boost revenue while continuing further cuts to state programs and agencies will bring the budget in-line with fulfilling our education, health and transportation obligations. Most of us are optimistic that our current economic upturn will continue and enhance seriously depleted state coffers. But, as with any expectations or projected figures—it should not serve as a foundation for meeting essential expenditures. That places the principal weight of balancing the budget on making further cuts within the system. The state has already sustained $6 billion in cuts over the past two years. An internal memo distributed among those members opposed to any tax increases suggests that $1billion in additional spending reductions would have to be implemented even if the revenue growth rate equals 5%. Adjustments would include but not be limited to:
•  offering no pay raises to state employees.
•  eliminating new money to Commerce & Trade, Tourism, Natural Resources and DEQ clean up.
•  eliminating new funding for higher education, especially in research grants.

Out of necessity, I have generally supported the reductions made in the previous two years, but I question the wisdom of taking further money from the very programs and institutions that enhance economic growth and jobs. It defeats the purpose of building a strong economy. To attract and keep the best employees there logically needs to be an incentive in pay or benefits. To attract businesses there needs to be an investment in business initiatives and outreach. When we withdraw higher education funding we weaken the very institutions that provide significant training, research and employment stability. In the New River Valley, Virginia Tech drives the economic engine of the entire region, and Dabney Lancaster Community College serves as a conduit between people seeking training after layoffs and leaders striving to bolster economic possibilities in the Alleghany Highlands.

So far I have seen or heard little evidence to convince me that further budget cuts provide a healthy choice for the future. Figures from the business community point out that our future transportation needs equal as much as $14 billion. Health care and Medicaid are currently short $350 million, annually. And the annual shortfall to our K-12 requirements is $700 million, with colleges and universities short $400 million a year.

While the divide between the tax issue has partisan overtones, especially in the House of Delegates, there appears to be a growing push among business, education, and consumer groups to support revenue increases. Senator John Warner has entered the fray by publicly encouraging the General Assembly to have an openness to revenue increases. There are numerous initiatives before the legislature that structure revenue increases, using various methods and guidelines. I will be looking closely at the statewide and local benefits of each before I determine my own legislative direction.